It is certain that the catching-up will continue this year, and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita measured by the Hungarian Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) may be even 2 percentage points closer to the EU average, Gergely Suppan, senior analyst at Takarékbank, said.
According to Eurostat data, Hungary’s development compared to the other Member States increased from 73 percent in 2019 to 74 percent in 2020, which is 8 percentage points higher than the 2010 GDP PPS. At this rate, Hungary could catch up to the level of development of Portugal and Poland.
Péter Virovácz, senior analyst at ING Bank, is almost certain that there will be further catching-up this year, as the bank’s forecast of 7.4 percent Hungarian GDP growth far exceeds the expected growth of the EU economy. Although Hungary’s inflation will be higher than the EU average, which may dampen GDP measured in purchasing power standards, real GDP should still offset this.
According to Takarékbank’s expert, Hungary’s GDP may grow by 7.7 percent this year, while the EU growth average may be around 5-5.5 percent. The European Commission (EC) expects GDP growth of 6.3 percent increase in Hungary this year and an increase of 5 percent in 2022.
Among the Visegrád countries, Hungary’s rebound may take the lead in 2021, but Hungarian growth is expected to be slightly lower than the expected 5.3 percent in Poland and 5.2 percent in Slovakia in 2022.
According to the EC’s summer report, both the euro area and EU economies could grow by 4.8 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent next year.
Gergely Suppan added that current Hungarian development is 60 percent of Austria’s. But progress can be made, and in the coming years, catching-up may be rapid, he added.