According to Morgan Stanley, Hungary’s gross domestic product will grow by 4.6 percent in 2021; meanwhile, Moody’s analysts predict a growth of 4.1 percent, while EBRD (the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) expects 4 percent economic growth in 2021.
Morgan Stanley further says that Hungary will be among the emerging European economies whose gross domestic product (GDP) will reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2021. Their experts forecast GDP will decrease by 6.7 percent in Hungary this year, but say the recession will be the deepest in the Czech Republic, with a 7.8 percent decline. The study highlights that this will be the first recession in the Polish economy in 30 years, with a 5 percent decline in GDP predicted there for 2020.
The company’s economists expect that the Hungarian economy will benefit directly and indirectly in 2021 from the synchronized recovery expected in Europe in 2021. Consumption is expected to pick up from the third quarter of 2020, mainly due to the re-emergence of stifled demand, although the pace of recovery may be limited by precautionary savings.
Moody’s analysts expect a 4.8 percent decline in the Hungarian economy this year and a 4.1 percent recovery in 2021. The financial services company, however, expects the region to make up for production losses caused by the coronavirus epidemic only by 2022.
EBRD forecasts a 3.5 percent drop in GDP for Hungary this year, followed by growth of 4 percent in 2021.